March Madness Matchmaking: 5 opponents NCAA tourney teams want to draw on Selection Sunday

As Selection Sunday approaches, coaches across the nation await the unveiling of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket with bated breath. While securing a spot is a significant achievement, the path laid out in the bracket can heavily influence a team’s journey through March Madness. Drawing an opponent with exploitable weaknesses or a team that’s lost its early-season momentum can be the difference between a deep tournament run and an early exit.

Historically, identifying such vulnerable teams has been insightful. Two years ago, Purdue, despite being a No. 1 seed, was highlighted as a potential early upset candidate due to specific shortcomings—and they indeed faced a shocking first-round exit. Similarly, last year’s analysis correctly anticipated Kansas’s early departure. This year, as we analyze the landscape, several teams emerge as favorable draws for opponents aiming to capitalize on perceived vulnerabilities.

Marquette Golden Eagles

• Record: 22-9, 13-7 Big East
• Projected Seed: No. 6

In early January, Marquette secured a decisive victory over Creighton, elevating their record to 13-2 and solidifying their position in the AP poll’s top eight. However, this marked their last win against a clear NCAA tournament-caliber opponent. Since then, the Golden Eagles have struggled, performing at a level akin to the nation’s 46th-best team, according to Bart Torvik’s rankings. Their inability to secure victories against top Big East contenders and reliance on All-American guard Kam Jones without consistent offensive support have raised concerns about their tournament resilience.

Purdue Boilermakers

• Record: 21-10, 13-7 Big Ten
• Projected Seed: No. 4

Purdue’s offense, led by dynamic point guard Braden Smith, has been commendable. However, their defensive frailties, particularly in rim protection, are glaring. The departures of Zach Edey to the NBA and the injury to 7-foot-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen have left a void in their interior defense. Opponents are capitalizing, shooting a staggering 56.2% from inside the arc against the Boilermakers, ranking them 344th nationally in this defensive metric. This deficiency, combined with perimeter defensive challenges, makes Purdue susceptible to teams with strong inside games.

Michigan Wolverines

• Record: 22-9, 14-6 Big Ten
• Projected Seed: No. 5 or 6

Once considered a formidable force capable of a deep tournament run, Michigan’s recent form tells a different story. The Wolverines have lost three consecutive games and four of their last six, primarily due to turnovers and defensive rebounding issues. The offensive burden has fallen heavily on 7-footers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, but their struggles against defensive pressures have exacerbated Michigan’s turnover woes. In their recent defeats, they’ve amassed 57 turnovers and allowed 56 second-chance opportunities, a troubling trend heading into the tournament.

Tennessee Volunteers

• Record: 25-6, 12-6 SEC
• Projected Seed: No. 2

Tennessee’s identity is rooted in its tough, physical defense. However, their methodical pace—ranking 345th nationally in adjusted tempo per KenPom—and reliance on inconsistent three-point shooting make them vulnerable. The Volunteers aim to control the game’s rhythm, but their propensity for offensive droughts raises questions about their ability to navigate the high-pressure environment of the NCAA tournament. Their potential for a historic Final Four appearance exists, but only if they can mitigate these offensive inconsistencies.

Arizona Wildcats

• Record: 20-11, 14-6 Big 12
• Projected Seed: No. 4 or 5

Under Coach Tommy Lloyd, Arizona has enjoyed regular-season success but has underperformed in March. This season, the Wildcats have lost five of their last eight games, with their defense ranking 94th nationally during this stretch. Issues such as not forcing turnovers, poor interior defense, and allowing offensive rebounds have plagued them. Offensively, they rely heavily on streaky shooters like Caleb Love, and when their perimeter game falters, they become susceptible to upsets.

As the tournament unfolds, these teams’ vulnerabilities could be pivotal. Opponents that can exploit these weaknesses may find themselves advancing further than anticipated, while these highlighted teams will need to address their shortcomings to avoid early exits.